the big story (late edition)

Recessions Are the New Normal

Also, "Buy & Hold" is a thing of the past

The classic "buy and hold" strategy for stocks is officially dead, according to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, who sat down with Yahoo Tech Ticker recently. And, Achuthan said, investors should prepare themselves for even more frequent recessions. (We realize it's great news.)

Two big patterns moving like "big ol icebergs" will create more frequent recessions, Achuthan said. The first pattern, Achutan says, is the pace of each expansion after a recession actually gets weaker and weaker -- and this effect applies to GDP, sales and income. "On every count, the strength [of growth] weaker and weaker with each expansion," he added.

The second pattern is that volatility will be a fact of life. "We're going to see more boom and bust type cycles, I don't think it's going to be like the pre-Depression levels. It will be more like the cycles we saw in the 1970s, where we're going to have an expansion for a few years then another recession."

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earlier:

From Bowling Nights to Clowns
State Are Now Taxing Everything

It is a new era of Austerity for US as all manner of services are taxed to bring budgets into balance. With American manufacturing nearly extinct, how will state citizens react to new taxes on the nation's service-based economy? And how will business, especially small businesses - the leading employers, be able to hire?

“It’s hard enough doing what we do,” grumbled John Luke, a plumber in the Philadelphia suburbs. His services would, for the first time, come with an added tax if the governor has his way.

Opponents of imposing taxes on services like funerals, legal advice, helicopter rides and dry cleaning argue that this push comes as businesses are barely clinging to life and can ill afford to see customers further put off by new taxes. This is especially true, they say, in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where some of the most sweeping proposals are being considered this spring.

But this is also a period of economic gloom for states. Pension funds are in the red, federal stimulus help will soon vanish, and revenues from traditional sources like income and property taxes are slumping ever lower, with few elected officials willing to risk voter wrath by raising them.

“This is born out of necessity,” said Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, a Democrat. His proposed budget, being debated in Harrisburg, would tax services including accounting, advertising and data processing.

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